Market Insights

The International Valuation Disconnect

September 23, 20242 Min Read
September 23, 2024
2 Min Read

Michael J. Streitmarter, CFA

PARTNER, PORTFOLIO MANAGER

Highlights

The valuation gap between U.S. and international stocks has steadily expanded over the past fifteen years, putting international equities “on sale” and offering historically attractive relative valuations.

The valuation gap between U.S. and international stocks has steadily expanded over the past fifteen years, putting international equities “on sale” and offering historically attractive relative valuations. The increasing gap has been driven by a re-rating in U.S. stocks, which are trading at a 29% premium to their fifteen-year average. In contrast, international equities are trading at only a 2% premium to their respective average. Given the strength of the U.S. economy over the past decade and the significant growth of several U.S. mega-cap stocks, it is unsurprising that U.S stocks have outperformed. However, there are glaring examples of unwarranted valuation discounts that seem to be driven by the location of the primary listing and domicile of a company instead of business fundamentals.

International Equities Attractively Valued
Data from 8/31/2009–8/31/2024
Sources: FactSet, Renaissance Research

For example, Shell is a global oil and gas company based in the U.K., with operations across the energy spectrum, including exploration and production, refining, transport, and gas stations. Shell’s integrated oil and gas business model is very similar to some of its U.S. based peers, including Exxon Mobil and Chevron. What is not similar, however, are the valuations of the three companies:

As shown in the table, whether measured on a price-to-earnings basis, enterprise value-to-EBITDA basis, or free cash flow yield basis, the valuation of Shell is 20–40% lower than comparable U.S. companies in the same economic sector. Arguably, an investor seeking exposure to the global energy markets would consider buying Shell a very attractive way of investing in the sector.

As investors and management teams have grown increasingly frustrated with their undervalued share prices, some international companies have switched their primary listing to the United States to appeal to more U.S.-based investors. For example, CRH, an Ireland-based building materials company, switched its primary listing to the United States nearly a year ago. The company’s P/E ratio has expanded by nearly 30% since, significantly outpacing the valuation expansion of both U.S. and international equities during the same period. The company is also seeking inclusion in the S&P 500, which should help shares re-rate further. Other companies, such as TotalEnergies and Shell, are becoming more receptive to the idea of switching their primary listing. The CEO of Shell has acknowledged that Shell’s share price is below what the company believes the fair market value should be. While the strategy, for now, is buying back shares to close the disconnect, the CEO has indicated that if buybacks do not close the valuation gap, all options would be on the table including switching the primary listing to the United States. If more companies see an uplift to their valuation from transitioning their primary listing to the United States, it could present a unique opportunity for other international companies to follow suit and help reduce the international discount.

Michael J. Streitmarter, CFA

PARTNER, PORTFOLIO MANAGER

Highlights

The valuation gap between U.S. and international stocks has steadily expanded over the past fifteen years, putting international equities “on sale” and offering historically attractive relative valuations.

RELATED

A Rotation in the Stock Market

August 20, 2024

Where Will Real Yields Go?

June 3, 2024

Is Japan Back?

March 21, 2024

It’s Been a Big Market Rally – What’s Next?

February 23, 2024

Get Our Latest Posts Delivered Right To Your Inbox.

This Market Update reflects the thoughts of Renaissance as of September 1, 2024. This information has been provided by Renaissance Investment Management. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable and current, but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. This is not to be construed as an offer to buy or sell any financial instruments and should not be relied upon as the sole factor in an investment making decision, nor should it be considered a recommendation. The views and opinions expressed are those of the Portfolio Management Team at the time of publication and are subject to change. There is no guarantee that these views will come to pass. As with all investments, there are associated inherent risks. Please obtain and review all financial material carefully before investing.

AMG FUNDS

Renaissance has a Client Servicing and Marketing Agreement with its affiliate AMG Funds LLC, a subsidiary of Affiliated Managers Group (AMG), under which AMG Funds markets Renaissance’s products to third parties (such as brokerage houses and investment consultants) and/or to other platforms. AMG Funds is paid a fee by Renaissance for these services.

PERFORMANCE

If Renaissance or benchmark performance is shown, it represents historically achieved results, and is no guarantee of future performance. Future investments may be made under materially different economic conditions, in different securities and using different investment strategies and these differences may have a significant effect on the results portrayed. Each of these material market or economic conditions may or may not be repeated. Therefore, there may be sharp differences between the benchmark or Renaissance performance shown and the actual performance results achieved by any particular client. Benchmark results are shown for comparison purposes only. The benchmark presented represents unmanaged portfolios whose characteristics differ from the composite portfolios; however, they tend to represent the investment environment existing during the time periods shown. The benchmark cannot be invested in directly. The returns of the benchmark do not include any transaction costs, management fees or other costs. The holdings of the client portfolios in our composites may differ significantly from the securities that comprise the benchmark shown. The benchmark has been selected to represent what Renaissance believes is an appropriate benchmark with which to compare the composite performance. The value of an investment may fall as well as rise. Please note that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be appropriate or profitable for a client or prospective client’s investment portfolio. Investor principal is not guaranteed and investors may not receive the full amount of their investment at the time of sale if asset values have fallen. No assurance can be given that an investor will not lose invested capital. Consultants supplied with these performance results are advised to use this data in accordance with SEC guidelines. The actual performance achieved by a client portfolio may be affected by a variety of factors, including the initial balance of the account, the timing and amount of any additions to or withdrawals from the portfolio, changes made to the account to reflect the specific investment needs or preferences of the client, durations and timing of participation as a RIM client, and a client portfolio’s risk tolerance, investment objectives, and investment time horizon. All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the loss of principal and are not guaranteed by the U.S. government.

R E F E R E N C E D  E T F
iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF—The iShares MSCI ACWI ex U.S. ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of large- and mid-capitalization
non-U.S. equities. iShares ETF names are registered trademarks of Blackrock, Inc.

R E F E R E N C E D  I N D E X
(Indices are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment.)
S&P 500 Index—The S&P 500 Stock Index is a market capitalization weighted index and consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group
representation.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)
CPI is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, such as transportation, food and medical care. It is calculated by taking price changes for each item. S&P 500 Index—The S&P 500 Stock Index is a market capitalization weighted index and consists of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry group representation.

S&P DATA
S&P Dow Jones is the source and owner of the trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the S&P Indexes. S&P® is a trademark of S&P Dow Jones. This presentation may contain proprietary S&P data and unauthorized use, disclosure, copying, dissemination or redistribution is strictly prohibited. This is a presentation of Renaissance Investment Management. S&P Dow Jones is not responsible for the formatting or configuration of this material or for any inaccuracy in Renaissance’s presentation thereof. This data is to be used for the recipient’s internal use only.